Brexit Articles

Posted in Brexit News
at 2016.10.29
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The latest Brexit decision, might cause a slowing in migration. This is anticipated without any control imposition on the migrating populations. Let us look at the hypotheses underpinning this assumption:

A resulting economic slowdown, will result in a significant increase in unemployment. Even though as per the latest IMF forecasts, the UK economy is slated to grow, there are some disturbances, which can be attributed to a post referendum key note speech by the Bank of England’s chief economist. According to him, “the amount of slack in the UK economy is likely to begin steadily rising in the period ahead, perhaps causing unemployment to rise”.

This unemployment can deter the current trend of migration. SMF has evidenced that there is a direct association between unemployment and net migration. As per the statistics shared by them, for every one percent point increase in unemployment, there is 40,000 net reduction in migration. However, it has been seen that the figures from the International Passenger Survey used by them do not consider the primary reasons for migration to UK. According to the market report, reasons which are totally unrelated to unemployment can be attributed to be responsible for migration. For example, as a result of the crackdown on bogus colleges, it has been seen that there is a significant decrease in the number of the students.

As far as recession is considered, it was seen that in end – 2007, there was a significant decrease in the volume of UK-born workers which was only sustained by the start of 2012. While, in comparison, as far as immigrant workers are concerned, their number were unaffected and showed an upward increase by the start of 2010.

Further, it can be evidenced that there is no distinct relationship between levels of migration and UK unemployment from the noteworthy fact that there are specific English regions, which have highest rate of unemployment but lowest migration workers and vice versa. These areas include, North-East, London, Yorkshire& Humberside. Thus, it can be safely assumed that labour demand does not impact the UK born and migrant workers.

The other factor which can affect migration is the number of vacancies – as per the latest reports, it is seen that since the referendum, the demand as actually increased. This report was generated by one of the largest UK recruitment businesses. Though these figures do not reflect a official status in the job vacancies but the assessment source is quite reliable. However, one can expect that there might have been a change in numbers since the passing of the referendum and it will be a faulty assumption, to infer anything focusing the growth of employer demand. Though it is seen that even in the period of Brexit uncertainty, i.e. April to July, as per the latest statistics, the number of vacancies, remained at record high levels – although it was anticipated that especially during this period all manner of indicators would be affected.

Thus, it can be safely assumed from the various reports based on unemployment, demands on labour markets and availability of skilled workforce that they can really have a bearing on the migration. It is too soon to say anything and only time will tell if there would be any adverse effect of the referendum on the migration statistics.

Call the Fusco Browne team at 01143032011 to set up an appointment with UK immigration attorney in London, Manchester, Birmingham, Coventry or Sheffield offices. You can also set up an appointment on Skype for further convenience.


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