Brexit News for Wednesday 2nd November

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at 2016.11.02
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Brexit News for Wednesday 2nd November

Economy to grow faster than expected into 2017 as UK sustains post-Brexit performance

The UK economy will grow faster next year than official predictions suggest, a pair of leading industry bodies have predicted. The Confederation of British Industry and the National Institute for Economic and Social Research expect GDP to grow by 1.3pc and 1.4pc respectively next year, higher than the current Bank of England estimate.The forecasts from both group for 2017 reflect positively on the health of the UK compared to the bearish post-Brexit recession forecasts promoted by HM Treasury in advance of the EU referendum. – Daily Telegraph

  • Joy for British manufacturers as weaker pound has boosted exports – Daily Express
  • Inflation could rise to 4% next year amid impact of Brexit – Sky News
  • Shoppers believe Brexit will result in more quality British goods on the shelves – Daily Express
  • Office take-up defies post Brexit predictions – B Daily

Economist claims the pound will be stronger after leaving EU

Gerard Lyons clashed with Labour MP Stephen Kinnock over the fall in sterling and the kind of Brexit deal Britain needs on BBC Two’s Daily Politics [yesterday] afternoon. Mr Lyons rejected the idea the fall in the pound and political instability after “delivering an earthquake” with the Brexit vote damaged or “spooked” the markets. He said the fall of the “overvalued” currency would rebalance the economy, saying: “I think eventually the pound will be much stronger… but the pound is fairly valued on many measures.” – Daily Express

  • Brexit politics in the driving seat for unloved pound – FT (£)

Theresa May vows to strengthen trade ties with Colombia

Theresa May will pledge to help Colombia achieve peace and prosperity as the country’s President continues his state visit to the UK with talks at 10 Downing Street. The Prime Minister and President Juan Manuel Santos will announce a series of trade and business deals, and discuss the bitter internal strife that has blighted Colombia for decades. – Sky News

  • Trade minister promises to fight protectionism in the post-Brexit world – Tim Wallace for the Daily Telegraph
  • The world is our oyster with free trade – Dido Harding for the Yorkshire Post
  • Polish MEP Danuta Hübner claims Britain cannot negotiate a free-trade agreement until it has left the European Union – The Guardian
  • Nick Clegg slams Brexiteers for ‘ludicrous utopianism’ over post-Brexit trade tariffs – Daily Express

‘Hard Brexit’ would be unworkable for Ireland, country’s foreign minister warns Theresa May

Danny McCoy, the CEO of Ibec, the Irish equivalent of Britain’s employers’ group, the CBI, said that Irish Industry groups were bracing themselves for the inevitability of a ‘hard Brexit’ and feared it would be difficult to protect the CTA if Mrs May demanded hard EU immigration curbs. – Daily Telegraph

  • All-Ireland talks on Brexit impact being held in Dublin – BBC

Brexit so complex it could overwhelm politicians, warn senior academics

A report from The UK in a Changing Europe, an independent group of academics led by Prof Anand Menon of King’s College London, warns that this will only be the start of the process of extricating Britain from the EU and establishing new relationships with other member states.The group of experts, commissioned by the Political Studies Association, found that identifying and transposing the legislation to be included in the great repeal bill – and then deciding what to keep and what to ditch – will be a daunting task for civil servants. – The Guardian

Cost of ‘Hard Brexit’ increases as UK financial services post record £68bn surplus

The full extent of the country’s reliance on financial services and the damage that could be caused to the economy by a ‘Hard Brexit’ has been highlighted by new data. Britain sold £63.4 billion more in financial services to overseas businesses than it bought from them, a report by lobby group, the CityUK, showed. The amount represents a new record and is in stark contrast to many other sectors where the country is running large deficits. Strong sales of financial services helped to constrain Britain’s ballooning trade deficit, which reached £38.7 billion last year, the report shows. – The Independent

  • 72% of UK bankers think London will keep ‘financial centre status’ post-Brexit – EurActiv
  • Think-tank claims Brexit risks 60% drop in service sector exports – FT (£)
  • Britain losing the financial passport will affect so much more than banking – Business Insider UK
  • Mutual equivalence wouldn’t be a permanent solution for the City. But it would be a start. – Chris Philp interviewed by ConservativeHome

> Lord Flight today on BrexitCentral: The potential cost to the City of the loss of Passporting has been deliberately exaggerated by diehard Remainers

A Brexit masterplan to improve fortunes for all

National insurance, death duties and council tax were among 20 levies on households and businesses which they argued should be abolished. And income tax should be slashed to a flat rate of just 15 per cent for most earners, said the Institute of Economic Affairs blueprint. “Lower taxes would lead to higher growth,” the think-tank’s report states. “Employment, productivity and wage levels would rise.” Tory MPs are already urging Chancellor Philip Hammond to use Brexit as a golden opportunity to restructure the economy. – Daily Express

  • Philip Hammond pursues fiscal ‘headroom’ for any Brexit fallout – PoliticsHome

Losing Remain campaign chief Will Straw tells a Commons committee why he accepted a CBE

“I wanted to have an occasion to take my wife to the Palace as we will be doing in the near future and to have something to remember the hard work that I and others put into the campaign.” – Daily Express

Christopher Howarth: Why the Wallonians won’t be able to sink a UK/EU trade agreement

The threat by Wallonia, the French speaking half of Belgium, to veto the EU/Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) highlights a number of issues. Primarily how the EU, encumbered by national, MEP and now sub-state vetoes, has the ability to block the UK’s ability to strike trade agreements with even our closest allies. But if the EU is hard to do business with that raises questions as to what will happen when the UK is at the other end of the EU’s stick negotiating a UK/EU agreement. Will we have to contend with veto-wielding Wallonians? Will it take seven years? – Christopher Howarth on ConservativeHome

Ed West: The new nostalgia for a pre-Brexit world

Among its many treasures, Brexit has spawned a new genre of think piece, the nostalgic ‘what has happened to the Britain I love’ lament in the Guardian… It is sad to see people on the Wrong Side of History clinging to a mythologised, imagined good old days. This must have been a very different Britain to the one I used to read about in the Guardian that was a hot-bed of racism and intolerance. – Ed West for The Spectator’s Coffee House blog

Stephen Harper: EU trade deal? Been there, done that (as Canada’s PM). Here are my tips for the UK

Canada, standing outside a broader political and economic union, has succeeded in negotiating free-trade agreements with 51 nations. This encompasses most of the major markets in the Americas, Europe and Asia (including the unratified Trans-Pacific Partnership). We have deep economic integration with the United States, without surrendering our sovereignty or unique national character. This seems to me to be what the UK desires in its relationship to the EU. So it can be done. But it will take considerable time, come with significant risk, and require careful political judgment. – Stephen Harper for the Daily Telegraph

Jeremy Warner: Don’t hold your breath for Brexit radicalism. May’s Britain is mostly about continuity

Brexit may indeed mean Brexit, but in other respects, the old order seems to be winning. Caution, not radicalism, is what truly instructs this Government. As if to prove the old saying that all revolutions end up devouring their children, the true radicals find themselves progressively side-lined by establishment Remainers determined to make Brexit their own. – Jeremy Warner for the Daily Telegraph

Tim Worstall: Britain simply isn’t going to have a WTO problem post-Brexit

One of the pieces of misinformation we’re all being fed about the position of Britain post-Brexit, after we leave the European Union, is that we’re all going to have some terrible problem with the World Trade Organisation. The argument goes like this. After we’re out of the EU then we need to have some sort of system which regulates trade. As I’ve already said I’d prefer unilateral free trade but understand that many don’t. But what people then say is that as we won’t have a WTO deal, or perhaps not the right kind of paperwork filled out, then we’re not going to be able to trade at all. – Tim Worstall for Forbes

Georgia Roberts: Attacks on student Leave voters must stop

It’s enough that Leave voters as a whole have to put up with the angry and regressive tones regularly erupting from the European Commission, but this bitter atmosphere is at its worst among students, directed towards other students. I’m referring to those “others” who make up the alleged 25 per cent who dared vote Leave….We may well be the minority among students, but unwarranted attacks against us on our own campuses must be bought to attention, and must not go on as we turn now to scrutinise this Government’s take on what Brexit really means for us all. – Georgia Roberts for the Daily Telegraph

Brexit comment in brief

  • Did data win it for Vote Leave? – Laura Kuenssberg for the BBC
  • Brexit, immigration and why the Tories must up their game – Emma Reynolds MP on LabourList
  • Brexit surprise due to analysts’ bias, not numbers – Real Clear Politics
  • Why Brexit won’t push U.K. companies out of London – Matthew Lynn for Market Watch
  • Theresa May’s Great Repeal Bill is a cunning contradiction – Catherine Barnard for CapX
  • Brexit means Britain will be tested to its limits – Anand Menon for The Times Red Box

Brexit news in brief

  • Eurozone economic growth remains steady as EU shows no negative effects from Brexit – The Sun
  • Michael Sheen: ‘Brexit’s message appealed to abandoned communities’ – The Guardian
  • ‘Brexit is not such a big deal for the UK’ says Sir Brian Souter – Daily Business
  • Outrage as David Attenborough says British people were not wise enough for Brexit vote – Daily Express
  • Supermarkets stock more British bacon after Brexit vote – The Grocer (£)
  • Monarch to create 75 new jobs at Birmingham Airport – Birmingham Mail
  • The five main Brexit books are all out now. Who’s winning? – Guido Fawkes
  • The EU Commission suffering a credibility crisis – New Statesman
  • ‘I deal with tough mathematical questions every day but don’t ask me to help with Brexit,’ Professor Stephen Hawking tells Theresa May – Daily Mail

And finally… EU bureaucrat is paid £75,000 to do nothing

An EU official has been offered a salary of more than £75,000 to “do nothing” for more than two and a half years until he reaches pensionable age. The arrangement was approved in an amendment passed by the European parliament’s budget committee last week. It made provisions for any employee of the European economic and social committee, a consultative body of the EU, to be put on leave and handed a maximum allowance of €18,000 (£16,200) per month until retirement, for up to five years. – The Times (£)

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Published at Wed, 02 Nov 2016 08:33:13 +0000

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